La infraestructura y el crecimiento económico en México

Abstract

We develop a model where investment in infrastructure complements private investment. We then provide time series evidence for Mexico on both the impact of public infrastructure on output, and on the optimality with which levels of infrastructure have been set. In particular, we look at the long-run effects of shocks to infrastructure on real output. We compute Long-Run Derivatives for kilowatts of electricity, kilometers of roads and phone lines, and find that shocks to infrastructure have positive and significant effects on real output for electricity and roads. These effects of infrastructure on output are in agreement with growth models where long-run growth is driven by endogenous factors of production. Our results further indicate that for electricity and roads, infrastructure provision has not reached growth maximizing levels.