Resilience of Russian regions in the face of COVID-19

Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has radically changed our views on regional resilience. This article examines the responses of Russian regional economies to the pandemic, identifying the common features and differences between them. This study emphasises that regions adapted to the factors of the pandemic in a non-linear manner. Thus, the socio-economic situation in the regions at the beginning of each wave is described by a new data structure. The latter, in its turn, is determined by the adaptation capabilities of the region. An affinity propagation algorithm was employed to cluster these regions. They were then grouped according to their responses to the pandemic. The results of the analysis showed that regional responses to the pandemic depended on sectoral specialisation, the level of socioeconomic development, and the degree of urbanisation. Low-urbanised regions with agro-industrial specialisation demonstrated a higher level of resilience. Innovation-active regions with many external linkages were the most vulnerable to shocks. One of the main conclusions is that economic diversification in the form of ‘unconnected diversity’ acted as a shock absorber, diminishing the impact of the pandemic.