Effect of Drought on the Future Sugar Content of Wine Grape Varieties till 2100: Possible Adaptation in the Hungarian Eger Wine Region

Abstract

The most significant risk for viticulture is that the sugar content of the grapes will increase in the future due to rising temperatures. As a result, it will be possible to produce wines with increasing alcohol content in the future. Excessively high alcohol content can significantly reduce the wines’ marketability and viticulture’s profitability. Our study seeks to answer how the expected drought in the Southern and Central regions of Europe will affect the future change in the sugar content of grapes. The degree of dryness was examined using the dryness index in the study. Finally, it was analyzed how the dryness index affects the past and future occurrence of maximum sugar content for six grape varieties. The probability of the occurrence of maximum sugar content for most vine grape varieties will decrease in the near future. However, in the distant future, there is a likelihood that the occurrence of maximum sugar content will increase again. If we can maintain the DI ≥ −10 condition with regulated deficit irrigation, the probability of the occurrence of maximum sugar content may decrease significantly in the near future. Ensuring moderate dryness is the only way to achieve the proper sugar content.