Evolution of the 2006-2007 El Nin±o: The role of intraseasonal to interannual time scale dynamics

Abstract

We describe development of the 2006-2007 El Nin±o, which started late, ended early and was below average strength. Emphasis is on the interplay between large scale, low frequency (i.e., seasonal-to-interannual time scale) deterministic dynamics and episodic intraseasonal wind forcing in the evolution of the event. Efforts to forecast the El Nin±o are reviewed, with discussion of factors affecting its predictability. Perspectives on the contemporaneous development of an Indian Ocean Dipole Zonal Mode event in 2006 and possible influences of global warming on the ENSO cycle, which exhibited unusual behavior in the first decade of the 21st century, will also be presented.