A modified regression model for forecasting the volumes of Taiwan's import containers

Abstract

The available empirical evidence on the relationship between international trade container volume and the economic growth in Taiwan is not conclusive. The purpose of this paper is to propose a modified regression model for forecasting the volumes of Taiwan's import containers. This article first identifies the contributions and shortcomings of previous empirical works. Then, a new modified regression model is proposed and built using data for the period 1989-2001. Finally, this paper compares the accuracy of the traditional regression model and this modified regression model for forecasting the volumes of Taiwan's import containers. The results show that this modified regression model proposed in this paper exhibits higher prediction accuracy. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.