Triggering factors and flooding processes of glacial lake outburst flood at Ranzerio lake

Abstract

The frequency and intensity of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are increasing with rapid glacier retreat under a warming climate, yet the processes linking triggers and downstream responses remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the 2013 GLOF at Ranzerio lake in southeastern Tibet using multi-source remote sensing, field observations, and hydrodynamic modeling. A glacier tongue collapse, with an estimated volume of 3.8 × 106 m3, was identified as the primary trigger of the moraine dam breach. Flood routing simulations with the HEC-RAS 2D model reproduced a peak discharge of 7930 ± 18 m3/s about 25 ± 5 min after the outburst, capturing flood propagation and geomorphic impacts downstream. The results reveal the multistage process chain of the outburst and highlight the importance of monitoring lake evolution, glacier movement, terrain change, and meteorological conditions for early warning and risk management in glacierized mountain regions.