We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100.
Vermeer, M., & Rahmstorf, S. (2009). Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106(51), 21527–21532. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907765106