Carbon Dioxide Reduction and Removal toward Net-Zero: A Needed Change of Narrative

Abstract

This work provides a simple physical framework to analyze the challenges related to achieving a net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emission target, with a specific focus on CO2management solutions based on CO2capture and storage (CCS), biomass use with CCS, and direct air capture of CO2from the atmosphere with permanent storage. The framework is based on a simplified schematic of the Earth system, a simple mathematical model of such a system, and a graphical representation of it (called a scenario diagram), where the states of the Earth system can be mapped, from the net-positive world of today to any net-zero and net-negative future scenario. Based on this framework, our analysis demonstrates that (i) from a climate impact perspective, CO2reduction and removal are equivalent in a net-positive world, though CO2removal will be needed to achieve a net-zero and possibly a net-negative world; (ii) achieving net-zero emissions will eventually depend on developing enough CO2storage volumes and decarbonizing our economy adequately; (iii) decarbonization can only happen by ultimately replacing fossil fuels in the energy and industry sectors and eliminating their use entirely. We believe that the use of the tools we have developed and the interpretation of the results we have presented can contribute to designing better incentives, optimizing resource allocation, building public trust, garnering greater support from policymakers, and ultimately leading to more effective and efficient climate policies and measures.