Higher education access crisis in South Africa: implications for the developmental state

Abstract

South Africa’s higher education system faces a deepening access crisis, as evidenced in the 2025 admission cycle when thousands of eligible students were excluded due to limited institutional capacity. With only 26 public universities serving a rapidly growing youth population, the mismatch between demand and available spaces has become a structural challenge with profound social and economic implications. This article interrogates South Africa’s higher education access crisis through the conceptual lens of the developmental state. It argues that while the state positions higher education as a key driver of development, the limited expansion of institutional capacity exposes tensions between equity objectives and the state’s developmental ambitions. Drawing on policy analysis, demographic data, and critical debates in higher education, the article situates South Africa’s experience within wider Global South struggles over access, capacity, and equity. The paper makes two contributions: first, it conceptualises higher education access not only as a matter of individual opportunity but as a question of state capacity, policy coherence and democratic legitimacy and second, highlights the policy implications of expansion and innovation debates for the future of higher education within South Africa’s developmental ambitions beyond 2030.