Incremental associative mining based risk-mapping system for earthquake analysis in Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the largest archipelagic countries in the world that has the highest risk of an earthquake. The major causes of earthquakes in this country are plate movements and volcanic activity. Earthquakes in Indonesia has a cause and effect relationship between each province. This disaster caused severe damage including a lot of people to get killed, injured and lose their money and property. We must minimize the impact of the earthquake by forming earthquake risk mapping. The risk of seismicity in Indonesia can vary each year, so it needs to be analyzed how the changes in risk are each addition of earthquake data. This paper proposes an earthquake risk mapping system with Associative Mining based on incremental earthquake data that have the highest values of confidence rates from the seismic association between provinces in Indonesia. The system uses the Incremental Association rule method to see the trend in the value of changes in confidence for each addition of earthquake data every 5 years. This system proposes 3 main features, which are (1) Data Retrieval and Preprocessing, (2) Association Rule Mining, (3) Incremental Associative Mining based risk mapping. For the experimental study, the system used data from 1963-2018. The results show that the provinces of Maluku, North Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Timur, North Sulawesi, and Papua have an incremental association risk of an earthquake.