Bayesian demographic accounts: Subnational population estimation using multiple data sources

Abstract

Demographic estimates for small areas within a country have many uses. Subnational population estimation is, however, difficult, requiring the syn-thesis of multiple inconsistent datasets. Current methods have important limi-tations, including a heavy reliance on ad hoc adjustment and limited allowance for uncertainty. In this paper we demonstrate how subnational population esti-mation can be carried out within a formal Bayesian framework. The core of the framework is a demographic account, providing a complete description of the de-mographic system. Regularities within the demographic account are described by a system model. The relationship between the demographic account and the ob-servable data is described by an observation model. Posterior simulation is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate the methods using data for six regions within New Zealand. © 2013 International Society for Bayesian Analysis.