Influences of Sampling Design and Model Selection on Predictions of Chemical Compounds in Petroferric Formations in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

Morro de Seis Lagos, a region in the Brazilian Amazon, contains a small (less than 1%) formation of siderite carbonatites which is considered to be one of the world’s largest niobium reserves. This highly weathered geological and pedological occurrence makes the site ideal for studying the pedogenetic process of lateralization and the spatial variability of chemical elements. The aim of this study was to investigate the influences of various sampling combinations (scenarios) derived from three sampling designs on the spatial predictions associated with chemical compounds (Al2O3, Fe2O3, MnO, Nb2O5, TiO2, and SiO2), using multiple machine learning algorithms combined with remotely sensed imagery. The dataset comprised 341 samples from the Geological Survey of Brazil (CPRM). Covariates included remotely sensed data collected from Sentinel-2 MSI, Sentinel-1A, and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and topographic attributes were calculated from a 20 m digital elevation model derived from hydrologic data (HC-DEM). The machine learning algorithms (Generalized Linear Models with Elastic Net Regularization (GLMNET), Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Neural Network (NNET), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVMRadial) were used in combination with covariates and measured elements at point locations to spatially map the concentrations of these chemical elements. The optimal covariates for modeling were selected using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), processing 10 runs for each chemical element. The RF, SVMRadial, and KNN models performed best, followed by the models from the Neural Network group (NNET). The sampling scenarios were not significantly different, based on root mean square error (F = 1.7; p-value = 0.15) and mean absolute error (F = 0.4; p-value = 0.79); however, significant differences were observed in the coefficient of determination (F = 41.2; p-value < 0.00) across all models. Overall, the models performed poorly for all elements, with R2 ranging from 0.07 to 0.27, regardless of sampling scenario (F = 1.6; p-value = 0.08). Relatively, RF, GLMET, and KNN performed better, compared to other models. The terrain attributes were significantly more successful as to the spatial predictions of the elements contained in laterites than were the remote sensing spectral indices, likely due to the fact that the underlying spatial structures of the two formations (laterite and talus) occur at different elevations.