Developing priority index for managing utility disruptions in urban areas with focus on cascading and interdependent effects

Abstract

Unanticipated events such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, cyber-attacks, and so forth, could cause prolonged disruptions in major utility service networks including, for example, water and electricity, in urban areas. Owing to the presence of complex interdependencies among infrastructure systems in an urban network, the disruption of one system may trigger a chain of events that degrades the proper functioning of several other dependent systems. Consequently, many parts of the city may not have access to multiple utility services and amenities. Identifying the most vulnerable communities exposed to such utility disruptions is key to performing immediate relief operations. In this paper, the concept of Priority Index, introduced as a measure of the susceptibility of communities to the event, is presented to rank urban regions based on the extent of the impact of disruptions (both cascading and interdependent impacts) caused by an event, as well as the social vulnerability of communities. Agent-based models are employed to simulate the consequences of a disruptive event on a semi-realistic urban infrastructure network. Later, the extent of impact on communities is evaluated using the simulation results and the American Community Survey data. The proposed Priority Index could help city administrations and utility service agencies identify the regions in a city that require immediate attention after a disruptive event occurs in the infrastructure network. A case study based on a semi-realistic infrastructure network in Austin, Texas is presented to demonstrate the implementation of the concept of Priority Index and the methodological framework.