Dynamic Risk Assessment Framework for Tanker Cargo Operations: Integrating Game-Theoretic Weighting and Grey Cloud Modelling with Port-Specific Empirical Validation

Abstract

The complex interdependencies among numerous safety risk factors influencing oil tanker loading/unloading operations constitute a focal point in academic research. To enhance safety management in oil port operations, this study conducts a risk analysis of oil tanker berthing and cargo transfer safety. Initially, safety risk factors are identified based on the Wu-li Shi-li Ren-li (WSR) systems methodology. Subsequently, a hybrid weighting approach integrating the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), G2 method, and modified CRITIC technique is employed to calculate indicator weights. These weights are then synthesised into a combined weight (GVW) using cooperative game theory and variable weight theory. Further, by integrating grey theory with the cloud model (GCM), a risk assessment is performed using Tianjin Port as a case study. Results indicate that the higher-risk indicators for Tianjin Port include vessel traffic density, safety of berthing/unberthing operations, safety of cargo transfer operations, safety of pipeline transfer operations, psychological resilience, proficiency of pilots and captains, and emergency management capability. The overall comprehensive risk evaluation value for Tianjin Port is 0.403, corresponding to a “Moderate Risk” level. Comparative experiments demonstrate that the results generated by this model align with those obtained through Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Methods. However, the proposed GVW-GCM framework provides a more objective and accurate reflection of safety risks during tanker operations. Based on the computational outcomes, targeted recommendations for risk mitigation are presented. The integrated weighting model—incorporating game theory and variable weight concepts—coupled with the grey cloud methodology, establishes an interpretable and reusable analytical framework for the safety assessment of oil port operations under diverse port conditions. This approach provides critical decision support for constructing comprehensive management systems governing oil tanker loading/unloading operations.