Mitigation strategies and policies recommendation for the economic impact of the Sunda Strait Megathrust: Seismic risk probability assessment and cost loss estimates

Abstract

This study investigates seismic risk and potential impacts of future earthquakes in the Sunda Strait region, known for its susceptibility to significant seismic events due to the subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The aim is to assess the likelihood of major earthquakes, estimate their impact, and propose strategies to mitigate associated risks. The research uses historical seismic data and probabilistic models to forecast earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 6.0 to 8.2 Mw. The Gutenberg-Richter model helps project potential earthquake occurrences and their impacts. The findings suggest that the probability of a major earthquake could occur as early as 2026–2027, with a more significant event estimated to likely occur around 2031. Economic estimates for a 7.8–8.2 Mw earthquake suggest potential damage of up to USD 1.255 billion with significant loss of life. The study identifies key vulnerabilities, such as inadequate building foundations and ineffective disaster management infrastructure, which could worsen the impact of future seismic events. In conclusion, the research highlights the urgent need for comprehensive seismic risk mitigation strategies. Recommendations include reinforcing infrastructure to comply with seismic standards, implementing advanced early warning systems, and enhancing public education on earthquake preparedness. Additionally, government policies must address these issues by increasing funding for disaster management, enforcing building regulations, and incorporating traditional knowledge into construction practices. These measures are essential to reducing future earthquake impacts and improving community resilience.