Análisis de variables significativas para la generación deun inventario de emisiones de fuentes móviles y su proyección

Abstract

Determining emissions from mobile sources is complex considering that the sources travel through the area of interest under different operating regimes and with different technologies. This research analyzes the information available in public institutions in Chile with the aim of creating an inventory of representative, upgradeable and dynamic emissions. Regarding the growth of the fleet, the main indicator is the motorization rate, which by 2012 exceeded 207 vehicles per thousand inhabitants, far from rates in developed countries, between 400 and 600 vehicles per thousand inhabitants, so the growth trend of the automotive fleet in Chile will be maintained. Currently in Chile there isn’t a formal basis for emission factors from motor vehicles, however, the Ministry of Transport and Communications regulates the entry of vehicles through the Vehicle Control and Certification Center (3CV). The center determined through direct measurement emissions of each of the models entering the country confirming that the emission standard established by the regulations is met. As a result of this work, an emissions inventory of Mobile Sources with local information for emissions projecting, as a complement to traditional models as MODEM was obtained. The projected emissions in 2030 shows a reduction of 76% for particulate matter 2.5 microns, a reduction of 53% in nitrogen oxides and an increase of 193% carbon dioxide in relation to 2008.