Winning the Blue Sky Defense War: Assessing Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Based on Synthetic Control Method

Abstract

Undoubtedly, the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in China has led to environmental problems, among which air pollution is particularly prominent. In response, the Chinese government has introduced a series of policies, including the Air Pollution Control and Prevention Action Plan (APPA), which is one of the most stringent environmental regulations in history. The scientific evaluation of the implementation of this regulation is important for China to win the battle of blue sky. Therefore, this study uses a synthetic control method to explore the effects of APPA on air pollution (AP) based on data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2019. The study concludes that (1) APPA significantly reduces AP in the treatment provinces, and subsequent robustness tests validate our findings. However, the persistence of the policy effect is short in some provinces, and the rate of AP reduction slows down or even rebounds in the later stages of the policy. (2) The reduction effect of APPA varies significantly between regions and provinces. (3) The results of mechanism tests show that APPA reduces AP through high-quality economic development, population agglomeration, control of carbon emissions, and optimization of energy structure. Based on the above findings, targeted recommendations are proposed to promote AP control in China and win the blue sky defense war.