Potential impacts of a changing Arctic on community water sources on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Abstract

This paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change on community drinking water sources on the Seward Peninsula. The vulnerability assessment was largely based on the likelihood that the water source would be impacted by a change in the permafrost regime. Factors that were considered were the likely change in the permafrost condition of a watershed, the watershed area, and the contribution of groundwater to streamflow. Results showed that the change in permafrost condition is likely to impact some communities much more than others, even though the communities are near to each other. Communities that will experience little change to the permafrost in their watersheds, have a significant contribution of base flow to their streams and rivers, or have water sources with large watersheds were not found to be vulnerable. On the other hand, communities with small watersheds, watersheds that were likely to see a significant change in the permafrost regime, or watersheds with little winter base flow were seen to be vulnerable to climate change. The results of this work could be valuable to community leadership when considering future vulnerability. The same approach could be used across the Arctic to assess the potential impact of climate change on community water sources and ultimate sustainability. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.