Development of reference building models based on statistical data for the analysis of the building heat demand

Abstract

For the transition of the energy system from the status quo to a point where the political targets are achieved, the largest potentials for energy and CO2 savings are in the building sector, especially due to older unrenovated buildings. For the state of Bavaria, preliminary investigations have shown that approximately 27 % of the total final energy demand is provided for space heating and domestic hot water preparation of the residential building stock. Extensive measures must be taken in this sector for a successful energy transition. To make the best use of available resources, investigations with realistic reference building models are essential. Previous studies have shown that a significant classification of the building stock can performed and large parts of it can be represented with a limited number of reference buildings models. In this study, it is shown that the representativity can be further increased by selective grouping of the categories while keeping the number of necessary models as small as possible. In addition, a method is presented to model reference buildings using statistical data. The methods of grouping and modelling as well as possible applications and outputs of the generated models are shown for a realistic example.