Timber supply projections for Northern New England and New York: Integrating a market perspective

Abstract

The North East State Foresters Association (NEFA) commissioned a study that resulted in the publication of a report titled, "A Forest Resource Model of the States of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine." In this article we used the integrated NEFA computer simulation framework to go beyond the reported results and further explore the effects on the forest resource in terms of timber harvest, inventory, and price under various market and demand assumptions. Five scenarios were run through the integrated SRTS-ATLAS model to project long-run effects on timber inventory (growing stock) and price. Besides reflecting differing assumptions about demand and supply, these scenarios defined different markets, thus affecting how the wood harvest was allowed to move across the region in response to demand. Regionally, at the end of the 50 yr projection period, cubic-foot growth and harvest were approximately in balance in the Reference Case, the scenario that we felt was most likely. Initial inventory on all timberland was 66.7 billion ft 3. By 2050, inventory volume increased 13% to 75.4 billion ft 3. Net growth declined over the 50 yr period from 35.3 to 32.1 ft3 ac-1yr-1, while harvest increased from 26. 6 to 31.9 ft3 ac-1yr-1. Regional real price increased approximately 1.1% yr-1 over the period. Changes in the resource situation in one state affect the situation in the other states. There is a mutual dependence in markets that policy makers need to recognize. The integration of a market module into the NEFA modeling process added the interplay of market forces and improved upon the policy information available from the model.