Renewable Energy Complementarity (RECom) maps - a comprehensive visualisation tool to support spatial diversification

Abstract

Maps showing the mean wind speed only give an inaccurate indication of the quality of locations for future wind power developments. Calculating the capacity factor and plotting that on a map gives a better indication of the expected mean power output, but the outcome depends on the turbine choice. In this article, we introduce a general step-by-step method for improved visualisation of potential wind power locations. First, the mentioned dependency on turbine choice is compensated for by putting the expected mean power output in relation to the expected mean power output of all other wind parks of the region. This relative capacity factor results in comprehensive wind resource maps and can be plotted for the situation today and also for a future scenario. Since the expected income of a potential wind park is the product of mean power output and mean market value, looking at the relative capacity factor only does not give the full picture. The mean market value is influenced by the merit order effect that is mainly driven by covariance with other wind parks and the capacity factor's relation to production at low-wind moments. A market value factor is introduced that captures the expected mean market value relative to other wind parks, based on a simplified power market model. Finally the Renewable Energy Complementarity (RECom) index is defined, combining the relative capacity factor and market value factor into a single index, resulting in RECom maps. This map can comprehensively show the revenue potential of different locations for potential future wind power developments.