Reproducibility of prediction models in health services research

Abstract

The field of health services research studies the health care system by examining outcomes relevant to patients and clinicians but also health economists and policy makers. Such outcomes often include health care spending, and utilization of care services. Building accurate prediction models using reproducible research practices for health services research is important for evidence-based decision making. Several systematic reviews have summarized prediction models for outcomes relevant to health services research, but these systematic reviews do not present a thorough assessment of reproducibility and research quality of the prediction modelling studies. In the present commentary, we discuss how recent advances in prediction modelling in other medical fields can be applied to health services research. We also describe the current status of prediction modelling in health services research, and we summarize available methodological guidance for the development, update, external validation and systematic appraisal of prediction models.