Quantifying the weight of evidence from a forensic fingerprint comparison: A new paradigm

Abstract

The fingerprint has, with considerable justification, come to be regarded as the acme of forensic identification. Over the last century, millions of cases have been resolved world wide because of marks left at crime scenes. The comparison methodology has not evolved greatly during its history and it is universal practice to present fingerprint evidence to a court as a categoric opinion of identification or exclusion, or to classify the evidence as inconclusive and not to report it. There has been a growing movement to supplement the fingerprint examination process by one that has a statistical model, supported by appropriate databases for calculating numerical measures of weight of evidence. The movement calls for the establishment of a logical framework for informing conclusions, based on explicit assumptions and data and open to revision and improvement. The aim is to enable the numerical evaluation of evidence that would currently be reported as a categorical identification and also of evidence that would currently be classified as inconclusive. The paper presents the results of a project carried out by the Forensic Science Service that aims to attain this goal. After a historical review, we describe a formal model for assigning numerical values to configurations of minutiae in fingerprints. We describe how the parameters of the model have been optimized to take account of interoperator variability and distortion of the finger pad, and we present the results of a substantial validation experiment that was based on searches that have been carried out on the US national fingerprint database of approximately 600 million fingerprints. © 2012 Royal Statistical Society.