Fitness consequences of longer breeding seasons of a migratory passerine under changing climatic conditions

Abstract

Numerous studies have shown that climate change affects the timing of migration and bird laying dates, but the resulting changes in the duration of breeding seasons and their fitness consequences remain largely unknown. We compared breeding parameters of 343 individually marked female Eurasian reed warblers, a multi-brooded migratory passerine, studied in the same area in 1980–1983 and 2005–2012. The latter period was warmer, with mean temperatures during the breeding season higher by 1.5°C on average. As, in recent years, birds arrive earlier from wintering areas and the breeding season of the population is longer, we hypothesized it should result in the increased re-nesting opportunities of individual females. We found that breeding periods of individual females (from building of the first nest till the end of caring for last fledglings/last nest failure) in the current century have extended by 2 weeks compared to the 1980s. In the 2000s, females produced 75% more fledglings annually than females in the 1980s (2.8 vs. 1.6, respectively). The proportion of females raising second broods increased from 2.7% to 23.6% between the first and the second study period while the share of females that did not produce any young annually decreased from 48.1% to 15.5%. The higher offspring production in recent years was related to more successfully fledged broods and an earlier start of breeding, which secured more time to re-nest. Higher female parental effort in recent years was not manifested in the reduction of the female apparent survival: it was almost identical in the two study periods (0.30 vs. 0.31). We conclude that prolonged reproductive seasons might be beneficial for some species. Identifying causes and consequences of changes in the duration of breeding seasons may be essential to predict demography of populations under changing climatic conditions.