DSCALE v0.1 – an open-source algorithm for downscaling regional and global mitigation pathways to the country level

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) provide low-carbon scenarios at a global scale or for broad economic aggregates, as running these models for every country would be computationally demanding. Lack of national results from IAMs, hinders the enhancement of NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) and LTS (Long Term Strategies) in accordance with the 1.5 °C target and best available science. To address this limitation, we have developed DSCALE (Downscaling Scenarios to the Country level for Assessment of Low carbon Emissions), a novel algorithm designed to downscale regional IAMs outcomes to the country level. In this paper we present the methodology and show results for both current policy and 1.5 °C scenarios from the NGFS 2023 release. This downscaling tool provides insights for energy and emission developments and targets at the country level consistent with global scenarios from IAMs. Moreover, this tool facilitates the integration of IAMs results with other models and tools requiring energy and emissions data at the country level, such as the macroeconomic NiGEM model.