A Quasi-Chemical Kinetics Model for the Growth and Death of Staphylococcus aureus in Intermediate Moisture Bread

Abstract

The "quasi-chemical" kinetics model accounts for all 4 phases of the microbial lifecycle based on a proposed series of chemical rate equations. The model fits continuous growth-death kinetics for Staphylococcus aureus in intermediate moisture bread in various conditions of water activity, pH, and temperature. Growth rates evaluated using the quasi-chemical model are compared with values obtained with the Gompertz model. Kinetics data obtained with the quasi-chemical model are integrated with a probabilistic approach to estimate the boundary between growth and no-growth conditions. Continuous modeling of microbial growth/death kinetics in actual foods advances predictive modeling that conventionally separates growth and death models.