The asymmetric effects of fiscal policy on inflation and economic activity in post-communist European countries

Abstract

Fiscal policy plays an important role in stimulating economic activity, but it also has a significant influence in securing monetary stability in an economy. Our study aims to analyse the asymmetric effects of fiscal policy on inflation and economic activity on twelve post-communist European countries that are associated with the European Union (EU) by either membership or by being members of the Eastern European Partnership (EaP). We explore the asymmetric effects on inflation and economic activity by using a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. The results show that in the long run, the fiscal policy instrument negatively influences both inflation and economic activity; in the short run, the effects are not significant. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was estimated individually for each country. Our main findings are that the cumulative impact of fiscal policy generates an inflationary growth effect for the EU countries in our sample.