Aiming high or falling short? Longitudinal study on educational aspirations of Chinese adolescents

Abstract

Educational aspirations are key predictors of academic and career success, career choices, and social mobility. While much research has explored factors shaping these aspirations, less is known about how they evolve over time. This study examines the trajectories of educational aspirations among 789 Chinese adolescents aged 11 to 15, using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) collected in 2016, 2018, and 2020. The analysis identified 110 distinct trajectories out of 512 possible paths. Cluster heatmap analysis showed that 38.5% of participants maintained consistent aspirations for higher education, while the remaining trajectories showed upward or downward changes over time. These findings highlight the dynamic nature and extensive heterogeneity of educational aspirations among Chinese adolescents, emphasising the importance of understanding not just who receives education, but who aspires to it and at what levels. Future research should investigate how these trajectories differ by gender, household registration status, and family socio-economic status.