Risk-Based Warning Decision Making of Cascade Breaching of the Tangjiashan Landslide Dam and Two Smaller Downstream Landslide Dams

Abstract

Mega earthquakes or serious rainfall storms often cause crowded landslides in mountainous areas. A large part of these landslides are very likely blocking rivers and forming landslide dams in series along rivers. The risks of cascading failure of landslide dams are significantly different from that of a single dam. This paper presented the work on risk-based warning decision making on cascading breaching of the 2008 Tangjiashan landslide dam and two small downstream landslide dams in a series along Tongkou River. The optimal decision was made by achieving minimal expected total loss. Cascade breaching of a series of landslide dams is more likely to produce a multi-peak flood. When the coming of the breaching flood from the upstream dam perfectly overlaps with the dam breaching flood of the downstream dam, a higher overlapped peak flood would occur. When overlapped peak flood occurs, the flood risk would be larger and evacuation warning needs to be issued earlier to avoid serious life loss and flood damages. When multi-peak flood occurs, people may be misled by the warning of the previous peak flood and suddenly attacked by the peak flood thereafter, incurring catastrophic loss. Systematical decision making needs to be conducted to sufficiently concern the risk caused by each peak of the breaching flood. The dam failure probability Pf linearly influences the expected life loss and flood damage but does not influence the evacuation cost. The expected total loss significantly decreases with Pf when the warning time was insufficient. However, it would not change much with Pf when warning time is sufficient.