Global climate forcing driven by altered BVOC fluxes from 1990 to 2010 land cover change in maritime Southeast Asia

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Over the period 1990&amp;ndash;2010, maritime Southeast Asia experienced large-scale land cover changes, including expansion of high-isoprene-emitting oil palm plantations and contraction of low-isoprene-emitting natural forests. The ModelE2-Yale Interactive Terrestrial Biosphere global chemistry–climate model is used to quantify the atmospheric composition changes and, for the first time, the associated radiative forcing induced by the land-cover-change-driven biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emission changes (+6.5<span class="thinspace"></span>TgC<span class="thinspace"></span>y<sup>&amp;minus;1</sup> isoprene, &amp;minus;0.5<span class="thinspace"></span>TgC<span class="thinspace"></span>y<sup>&amp;minus;1</sup> monoterpenes). Regionally, surface-level ozone concentrations largely decreased (&amp;minus;3.8 to +0.8<span class="thinspace"></span>ppbv). The tropical land cover changes occurred in a region of strong convective transport, providing a mechanism for the BVOC perturbations to affect the composition of the upper troposphere. Enhanced concentrations of isoprene and its degradation products are simulated in the upper troposphere, and, on a global-mean basis, land cover change had a stronger impact on ozone in the upper troposphere (+0.6<span class="thinspace"></span>ppbv) than in the lower troposphere (<<span class="thinspace"></span>0.1<span class="thinspace"></span>ppbv increase). The positive climate forcing from ozone changes (+9.2<span class="thinspace"></span>mW<span class="thinspace"></span>m<sup>&amp;minus;2</sup>) was partially offset by a negative forcing (&amp;minus;0.8<span class="thinspace"></span>mW<span class="thinspace"></span>m<sup>&amp;minus;2</sup>) associated with a regional enhancement in secondary organic aerosol concentrations. The global-mean ozone forcing per unit of regional oil palm expansion is +1<span class="thinspace"></span>mW<span class="thinspace"></span>m<sup>&amp;minus;2</sup><span class="thinspace"></span>Mha<sup>&amp;minus;1</sup>. In light of expected continued expansion of oil palm plantations, regional land cover changes may play an increasingly important role in driving future global ozone radiative forcing.</p>




Harper, K. L., & Unger, N. (2018). Global climate forcing driven by altered BVOC fluxes from 1990 to 2010 land cover change in maritime Southeast Asia. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(23), 16931–16952.

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