Hierarchical modelling of blood lipids' profile and 10-year (2002-2012) all cause mortality and incidence of cardiovascular disease: The ATTICA study

Abstract

Background: The traditional view on the relationship between lipid biomarkers and CVD risk has changed during the last decade. However, it is not clear whether novel lipid biomarkers are able to confer a better predictability of CVD risk, compared to traditional ones.Under this perspective, the aim of the present work was to evaluate the predictive ability of blood lipids' profile on all cause mortality as well as 10-year incidence of CVD, in a sample of apparently healthy adults of the ATTICA epidemiological study. Methods: From May 2001 to December 2002, 1514 men and 1528 women (>18 y) without any clinical evidence of any other chronic disease, at baseline, were enrolled. In 2011-12, the 10-year follow-up was performed in 2583 participants (85 % follow-up participation rate). Incidence of fatal or non-fatal CVD was defined according to WHO-ICD-10 criteria. Baseline serum blood lipids' profile (Total-C, HDL-, non HDL-, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides (TG), apolipoprotein (Apo)A1 and B, and lipoprotein-(a) levels were also measured. Results: The 10-year all-cause mortality rate was 5.7 % for men and 2.0 % for women (p∈=∈0.55). The, 10-year CVD incidence was 19.7 % in men and 11.7 % in women (p∈