Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> This study investigated the influence of five El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) types on rainy-season precipitation in China: central Pacific warming (CPW), eastern Pacific cooling (EPC), eastern Pacific warming (EPW), conventional ENSO and ENSO Modoki. The multi-scale moving <i>t</i> test was applied to determine the onset and withdrawal of rainy season. Results showed that the precipitation anomaly can reach up to 30<span class="thinspace"></span>% above average precipitation during decaying CPW and EPW phases. Developing EPW could cause decreasing precipitation over large areas in China with 10–30<span class="thinspace"></span>% lower than average precipitation in most areas. Conventional El Niño in the developing phase had the largest influence on ENSO-related precipitation among developing ENSO and ENSO Modoki regimes. Decaying ENSO also showed a larger effect on precipitation anomalies, compared to decaying ENSO Modoki. The difference between rainy-season precipitation under various ENSO regimes may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. Stronger monsoon and anti-cyclone are associated with enhanced rainy-season precipitation. The results suggest a certain predictability of rainy-season precipitation related to ENSO regimes.</p>




Cao, Q., Hao, Z., Yuan, F., Su, Z., Berndtsson, R., Hao, J., & Nyima, T. (2017). Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(11), 5415–5426.

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