Does the length of station record influence the warming trend that is perceived by Mongolian Herders near the Khangai Mountains?

Abstract

Temperatures changes can be difficult to infer from changes in vegetation patterns or other ecological changes, yet warming can be inferred through changes in the habits of people who live in close connection with their natural environment. Herders near the Khangai Mountains of central Mongolia have perceived a warming trend in recent years. Since it is difficult to determine the exact time period over which perceived warming has occurred, we examined the statistical difference in changes based on the length of data and the specific period of record used in the analysis. We used temperature data from five meteorological stations for up to 50 years (1961-2010). We examined varying lengths of record from 15 to 50 years with varying start periods (1961 through 1986), based on the length of record. We found that the most statistically significant changes occurred for the longest time periods and for the annual average minimum temperatures. We also found that one very cold winter, in particular 2009-2010 decreased the warming trend and for shorter periods of record reduced the statistical significance.