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Abstract

A model is developed to estimate the duration for which malaria antibody levels in the blood remain high in a closed population. This estimate can be used to calculate the transmission rate within a region, in conjunction with the serological information contained in the population. The model is used on data obtained from a study of malaria in the Philippines and shows excellent agreement. It is subsequently utilised for predictions and seems to be an appropriate vehicle for this purpose.

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Gatton, M., Hogarth, W., Saul, A., & Dayananda, P. (1996). A model for predicting the transmission rate of malaria from serological data. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 34(8), 878–888. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01834824

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