A model is developed to estimate the duration for which malaria antibody levels in the blood remain high in a closed population. This estimate can be used to calculate the transmission rate within a region, in conjunction with the serological information contained in the population. The model is used on data obtained from a study of malaria in the Philippines and shows excellent agreement. It is subsequently utilised for predictions and seems to be an appropriate vehicle for this purpose.
Gatton, M., Hogarth, W., Saul, A., & Dayananda, P. (1996). A model for predicting the transmission rate of malaria from serological data. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 34(8), 878–888. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01834824