Networks of trends: Systematic definition of evolutionary scenarios

Abstract

TRIZ literature presents several papers and even books claiming the efficiency of Altshuller's Laws of Engineering System Evolution as a means for produce technology forecasts. Nevertheless, all the instruments and the procedures proposed so far suffer from poor repeatability, while the increasing adoption of innovation as the key factor for being competitive requires reliable and repeatable methods and tools for the analysis of emerging technologies and their potential impact. The present paper proposes an original algorithm to build a Network of Evolutionary Trends for a given Technical System with repeatable steps. Such a goal has been achieved by integrating well known models and instruments for system description and functional analysis. The overall procedure, still under further development, has been clarified by means of one of the case studies carried out for its validation. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.