We estimate the maximum prediction accuracy for the risk of Alzheimer's disease based on disease prevalence and heritability of liability. We demonstrate that the recently reported AUC values for predicting of Alzheimer's disease using polygenic scores reach about 90% of the estimated maximum accuracy that can be achieved by predictors of genetic risk based on genomic profiles.
Escott-Price, V., Shoai, M., Pither, R., Williams, J., & Hardy, J. (2017). Polygenic score prediction captures nearly all common genetic risk for Alzheimer’s disease. Neurobiology of Aging, 49, 214.e7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2016.07.018