On the prediction of the auroral westward electrojet index

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> An ARMAX based model, to forecast the evolution of the of AL index, is developed. The model has been trained and validated using neural networks with the half wave rectifier (<I>VB</I><sub>s</sub>) as input. It is shown that the model posses a good, reliable forecasting ability, including periods of intense geomagnetic activity. Prediction efficiency of the model is discussed in the context of 1 min resolution output smoothed over 7 min.</p>




Amariutei, O. A., & Ganushkina, N. Y. (2012). On the prediction of the auroral westward electrojet index. Annales Geophysicae, 30(5), 841–847. https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-30-841-2012

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