Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

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Early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWS is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWS and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWS is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWS. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.




Sättele, M., Bründl, M., & Straub, D. (2016). Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16(1), 149–166. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-149-2016

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