This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself. © 2011 The Author(s).
Curry, J. (2011). Reasoning about climate uncertainty. Climatic Change, 108(4), 723–732. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0180-z