Structured modeling and analysis of stochastic epidemics with immigration and demographic effects

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Abstract

© 2016 Baumann, Sandmann. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuoustime Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

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Baumann, H., & Sandmann, W. (2016). Structured modeling and analysis of stochastic epidemics with immigration and demographic effects. PLoS ONE, 11(3). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152144

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