New approaches to technological forecasting- Morphological analysis. An integrative approach

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Abstract

A successful technology planning program must tackle the problem of technological forecasting. Most of the techniques currently used may be classified as either normative or exploratory; the two types must be meshed for a complete forecast. Morphological analysis facilitates this two-way meshing. The author describes the three steps involved in such an analysis, which is an integrative approach that forces examination of all possibilities. The two-dimensional matrix is an appropriate tool for applying the morphological method. In a simplified example, the technique is demonstrated by developing a function-technology matrix for color television set circuitry. The results include a forecast and a scenario for the eighties. © 1970.

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O’Neal, C. R. (1970). New approaches to technological forecasting- Morphological analysis. An integrative approach. Business Horizons, 13(6), 47–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(70)90065-0

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