In this study, we identify and evaluate future energy options for different nations as determined by 1. (a) availability of oil and gas resources (which depend on future prices, substitution potential, rate of additions to reserves, and the ability of nations to manage different levels of demand); 2. (b) flexibility of the relation between energy and GNP for the developed countries and the possible effects of energy curtailment on the economies of the nations; 3. (c) energy and capital requirements of the non-OPEC Less Developed Countries (LDCs); 4. (d) possible feedback of environmental side-effects on the energy-supply system. We have used engineering analysis, small-scale energy modeling, and scenario analysis. Our study suggests that the oil and gas resources will be largely depleted by the year 2010, even if price and reserves double by 2010. Furthermore, only low levels of future oil, gas and energy consumptions are plausible for all nations. This low-energy future requires significant increase in capital requirements for the LDCs and a reasonable energy conservation program in developed countries. © 1985.
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