The concepts of probability and structural reliability theories have been employed to assess the predictive capabilities of existing deterministic models of soil deformation under dynamic loads. The results reveal that the models are associated with appreciable error attributed to the assumptions involved in their original formulations. The results also clearly distinguish the investigated models into three categories defined by their relative degrees of conservatism in predicting failure strain. The anisotropic residual deformation model is very conservative, the hyperbolic and Ramberg-Osgood models are moderately conservative, while the cyclic stress-strain performance model is non-conservative. Hence the reliability analysis has enabled an indepth perception of the relative effectiveness and limitations of the models as descriptors of dynamic stress-strain soil behaviour. © 1987.
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