Using tools for modelling and solving agricultural problems under risk

  • Pecher A
  • Hahn S
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Abstract

We present an opportunity to use a combination of computer based tools for generating risk functions, simulation, classical decision rules and linear programming (LP) as tools for decision making. This new approach is demonstrated by the use of an example which addresses the optimal assemblage of a pig fattening enterprise, whereby some basic data (e.g. prices, labour costs and average daily weight increases) are risk functions. Some coefficients, especially in the objective function (maximum gross margin) are stochastic values calculated with those 'risky' basic data. Various scenarios for different cases of risk behaviour are formulated and solved using decision rules. The optimal LP results are interpreted in deterministic and stochastic ways.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Correlation
  • Decision rules
  • Fattening pigs
  • Likelihood
  • Linear programming models
  • Risk functions
  • Simulation

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Authors

  • A. Pecher

  • S. Hahn

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