Can Adolescents Predict Significant Life Events?

  • de Bruin W
  • Parker A
  • Fischhoff B
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Abstract

We examine whether adolescents' probability judgments for significant life events are predictive and accurate. We find significant correlations with actual experiences, reported on successive waves of a national survey. Mean probability judgments approximated observed outcome rates, or were optimistic, except that adolescents greatly overestimated their probability of dying prematurely. © 2007 Society for Adolescent Medicine.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Adolescents
  • Probability judgments
  • Risk
  • Risk perception
  • Vulnerability

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