We examine whether adolescents' probability judgments for significant life events are predictive and accurate. We find significant correlations with actual experiences, reported on successive waves of a national survey. Mean probability judgments approximated observed outcome rates, or were optimistic, except that adolescents greatly overestimated their probability of dying prematurely. © 2007 Society for Adolescent Medicine.
CITATION STYLE
de Bruin, W. B., Parker, A. M., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Can Adolescents Predict Significant Life Events? Journal of Adolescent Health, 41(2), 208–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2007.03.014
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