Analysis and simulations of fragmentation patterns in the everglades

  • Wu Y
  • Sklar F
  • Rutchey K
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Sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) communities of Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A), a 43 281 ha Northern Everglades impoundment, are being invaded by cattail (Typha spp.). Results from analyses suggest that the yearly invasion rate of cattails has increased from 1% in 1973 to 4% by 1987. The total area of the landscape impacted by cattail increased from pe = 1/(1 + [alpha]e-8b\P) + [zeta]D/P. The threshold for accelerated cattail invasion was estimated at [sime]650 mg/kg soil total phosphorus. Cattail dispersal was mostly spatially dependent. For a given year, the probabilities of sawgrass changing to cattail based on the number of 1-8 adjacent cattail cells (20 x 20 m) were calculated to be Probad = 0.049 0.052 0.061 0.065 0.069 0.072 0.076 0.094!. The probabilities Probpe and Probad were used as Markov chain probabilities in a spatial model to simulate vegetation dynamics. The simulated landscape matched the actual landscape with an overall accuracy of 72.8% and predicted that cattail would invade 50% of WCA-2A in another 6-10 yr if the driving forces remain unchanged. [Journal Article; In English]

Author-supplied keywords

  • Cladium jamaicense
  • Everglades
  • Fragmentation
  • Landscape
  • Markov transition probability
  • Pattern
  • Threshold
  • Typha spp.

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  • Yegang Wu

  • Fred H. Sklar

  • Ken Rutchey

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