Asian rice economy changes and implications for sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Despite significant increases in rice production, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) still procures about one third of its rice needs through imports, mainly from Asia. Improving the competitiveness of local rice production will be economically sustainable only if production in SSA remains cost-competitive with Asia. Realizing this goal depends not only on conditions in SSA but also on how the rice economy in Asia evolves. Several factors are likely to affect the major Asian rice economies strongly in the coming years: (i) increased diversification of diets as a result of changing age structures and rapid economic growth; (ii) changes in production patterns; and (iii) evolving costs of production in response to higher energy and water costs, and technological change. The aim of the article is to assess the changes in rice-system dynamics of both SSA and Asia and derive their implications for the development of the rice subsector in SSA.