Bayesian Networks and participatory modelling in water resource management

Abstract

Bayesian Networks (Bns) are emerging as a valid approach for modelling and supporting decision making in the field of water resource management. Based on the coupling of an interaction graph to a probabilistic model, they have the potential to improve participation and allow integration with other models. The wide availability of ready-to-use software with which Bn models can be easily designed and implemented on a PC is further contributing to their spread. Although a number of papers are available in which the application of Bns to water-related problems is investigated, the majority of these works use the Bn semantics to model the whole water system, and thus do not discuss their integration with other types of model. In this paper some pros and cons of adopting Bns for water resource planning and management are analyzed by framing their use within the context of a participatory and integrated planning procedure, and exploring how they can be integrated with other types of models. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.