Children's Understanding of Probability Concepts

Abstract

4 experiments administering probability judgment tasks are reported tising child Ss ranging in age from preschool to early adolescence. Experiment 1 showed equivalent results with probability and proportionality instructions when judgments were performed between 2 circles with different black and white proportions. Experiment 2 showed that fewer correct probability than proportionality judgments occurred when S« judged a single circle. It was concluded that the 2-circle task does not require probability concepts, since S* need not construct probability ratios to succeed. These results confirm those of Piaget and Inhelder. Experiments 3 and 4^ modified the 2-circle task to require use of 'probability concepts and administered a probability task with double arrays of discrete objects. Results were comparable to those found for the single-circle task. Researchers who have claimed that preschool children use probability concepts are criticized since their experimental tasks have been similar to the unmMified 2-circle task of Experiment 1.