A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

  • Statham G
  • Haegeli P
  • Greene E
 et al. 
  • 23


    Mendeley users who have this article in their library.
  • 2


    Citations of this article.


This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Avalanche danger
  • Avalanche forecasting
  • Avalanche hazard
  • Avalanche problem
  • Avalanche risk

Get free article suggestions today

Mendeley saves you time finding and organizing research

Sign up here
Already have an account ?Sign in

Find this document


  • Grant Statham

  • Pascal Haegeli

  • Ethan Greene

  • Karl Birkeland

  • Clair Israelson

  • Bruce Tremper

Cite this document

Choose a citation style from the tabs below

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free